Nexus Mortgage SG  ·  April 2026  ·  8-minute read

HDB Resale Prices Just Fell for the First Time in 7 Years — What Q1 2026 Means for Your Mortgage

By Dan Ler, Mortgage Advisor

The Headline Number That Changes Everything

For the first time in nearly seven years, Singapore’s HDB resale market has cooled. The HDB Resale Price Index (RPI) clocked in at 203.4 in Q1 2026, a 0.1% quarter-on-quarter dip that ends a 27-quarter streak of unbroken growth, according to the HDB’s official flash estimate.

It’s a small number with big implications. Some headlines say the cooling has finally landed. Others lead with a record 413 million-dollar HDB flats sold. Both are true. What matters more, if you’re buying, upgrading, or refinancing this year, is what the data quietly tells you about where rates, supply, and borrowing power are headed next.

Here’s how we read it at Nexus Mortgage SG, and how to position your home loan around it.

What Actually Happened in Q1 2026

Read together, the market isn’t falling. It’s normalising. Prices barely moved while the volume of buyers in the market jumped nearly 20%. That’s the textbook signature of a market where supply has caught up to demand, not one where buyers are walking away.

Two things are doing the work. Cooling measures from 2023–2024 are still in force, and a wave of new resale supply is finally hitting the system. Roughly 13,480 HDB flats are expected to complete their five-year Minimum Occupation Period in 2026, almost double the 7,000–8,000 of 2025, concentrated in Punggol, Tampines, and Toa Payoh. There’s a parallel surge in private completions too, set to rise from ~5,200 units in 2025 to ~7,000 in 2026, per the URA residential property data.

For the first time in years, buyers have both leverage and choice.

Roughly 13,480 HDB flats reach their five-year MOP in 2026, nearly double 2025’s pipeline, concentrated in Punggol, Tampines and Toa Payoh.

Why Prices Dipped While Volume Jumped

The mechanics are worth understanding, because they tell you what the next 12 months will probably look like.

When the LTV cap on HDB loans dropped from 80% to 75% in August 2024, every buyer needed more cash or CPF upfront. The MAS 4% mortgage stress test capped how much banks could lend on paper, even as actual market rates fell well below it. We covered how that floor works in our MAS stress test guide, and it’s worth re-reading now, because that floor is exactly what’s keeping prices from running away.

On the supply side, every flat that crosses MOP is a potential resale listing. Punggol alone is releasing thousands of units this year. When sellers compete, cash-over-valuation (COV) compresses and overall transaction prices flatten. That’s what a 0.1% dip looks like in practice. Sellers are still selling, they just no longer dictate terms.

Meanwhile, the 413 million-dollar transactions show that prime, well-located, larger-floor flats (think mature estates near MRT, jumbo flats, premium views) are still moving at a premium. The HDB market has split in the middle: ordinary flats normalise while prime flats keep setting records. Property analysts at Stacked Homes’ Q1 2026 review reach the same conclusion.

What This Means If You’re Buying

If you’ve been waiting on the sidelines, the maths is finally tilting in your favour:

1. There’s a bit more inventory to choose from. With ~27,000 resale transactions projected for 2026, you’ll see more comparable listings, and longer days-on-market for sellers means more room to negotiate.
2. Bank rates are at multi-year lows. Fixed-rate packages now start from around 1.40%, and SORA-pegged floating rates from 0.97% for qualifying loan sizes, both well below the 2.6% HDB concessionary rate. We track all 16 banks live on our current home loan rates page.
3. The MAS 4% stress test still applies. Even at sub-2% actual rates, banks calculate your TDSR using a 4% medium-term floor for residential loans, per MAS Notice 645. Plan your maximum loan around that, not the headline rate.

Before you make an offer, run the actual numbers. Our TDSR/MSR affordability calculator gives you the maximum loan a bank will approve under MAS rules, factoring in TDSR, MSR (for HDB and ECs), and the 4% floor. It’s far more accurate than the rough “30% of income” rule of thumb most articles still quote. For a deeper walk-through, see our TDSR and MSR explained breakdown.

What This Means If You’re Upgrading

Upgraders face a more delicate problem, which is timing. If you sell first, you may face rental costs while waiting for completion. If you buy first, you’re hit with Additional Buyer’s Stamp Duty at 20% on the second property, refundable only if you sell your existing home within six months. See IRAS’s ABSD framework for the full schedule.

The Q1 2026 dip changes the calculus in two ways. The resale market is moving faster (6,285 transactions, +19.6% QoQ), so the realistic window between selling and buying has compressed. And with new launches reduced ~30% in 2026, picking the right replacement property takes more pre-work, not less.

Some upgraders are also revisiting decoupling, which means restructuring ownership so one spouse can buy a second property without ABSD. It isn’t right for everyone, but the falling rate environment makes it cheaper to execute. Our decoupling case study walks through a recent S$5M landed example.

Whichever path you choose, get pre-approval in principle from a bank before you commit. Singapore banks honour pre-approvals for 30 days, which locks in your borrowing power against any rate moves while you shop.

Refinancing: The Quietest Opportunity of 2026

If you’re already a homeowner, especially one whose package was signed between 2022 and 2024, Q1 2026 has handed you a window most owners are missing.

Many borrowers are still paying 3.5%–4.0% on legacy fixed-rate packages taken when SORA was elevated. Today’s best fixed rates start from 1.40%, and floating SORA packages from 0.97%, per the latest market scan. The Business Times property section tracks weekly rate moves, and we keep a live comparison on our own rates page.

On a S$1M loan with 25 years remaining, dropping from 3.8% to 1.6% is roughly S$1,100 per month in interest savings.

The catch is timing. Most home loans have a lock-in period (usually 2 years) and a 3-month notice requirement to redeem. If your lock-in is ending in the next 4–6 months, you should already be quoting refinance options now. Our refinance calculator tells you in 60 seconds whether refinancing makes sense for your specific loan, including legal subsidy and clawback maths. For the full timing walk-through, see Refinance Home Loan Singapore: When & How to Save in 2026.

SORA, Fixed, or Hybrid: Which Structure Fits the New Market

With rates this low, the structure question matters more than chasing the absolute lowest headline.

Fixed (1.40%–1.80%)

Sleep-at-night peace of mind. Best if you expect rates to bottom and rise within the next 24 months. That’s a reasonable baseline given that MAS publishes the 1M and 3M SORA daily and the curve has been gently rising since late Q1.

Floating SORA (0.97%–1.60%)

Pure cost optimisation. Best if you have flexibility, healthy cashflow, and you’d refinance again the moment rates moved against you.

Hybrid

Some banks now offer 1-year fixed converting to SORA. Useful if you want a buffer while you watch the rate cycle.

No structure is best for everyone. The one to pick is the one that matches your cashflow profile, your planned holding period, and how much volatility you can absorb. That’s a five-minute conversation, not a calculator question.

Three Things to Do This Month

Q1 2026 has rewritten both the supply story and the rate story. Position your financing accordingly.

1. Re-run your numbers on our affordability calculator using current rates. Most buyers have more borrowing room than they think, even after the LTV cut.
2. Check your refinance window. If your lock-in ends in 2026, get quotes now, since banks usually need 3 months’ notice.
3. Get pre-approved before you start viewing. Pre-approval is free, takes 1–2 working days, and gives you genuine negotiating leverage in a market where sellers know prices are softening.
4. Download the Singapore Mortgage Free Report. It packs the HDB resale purchase timeline (8 milestones), a TDSR/MSR check at the MAS 4% stress floor, an upfront-cost breakdown (BSD/ABSD/legal), a 16-bank rate comparison and a lock-in expiry guide into one PDF.

A Note on Signal vs. Noise

A 0.1% dip is not a crash. Year-on-year, HDB resale prices are still up 1.2%. The housing demand fundamentals remain intact: population growth, citizen household formation, and a stable labour market tracked by MOM. Cross-Asia property analysts at Real Estate Asia flagged the dip as a sign of “balance,” not weakness.

What has changed is the rate environment, the supply pipeline, and the negotiating dynamic. For the first time since 2019, the market is rewarding patience, preparation, and good financing, not just speed.

Frequently Asked Questions

The HDB Resale Price Index dipped 0.1% quarter-on-quarter to 203.4 in Q1 2026, the first decline since Q2 2019. Year-on-year, prices were still up 1.2%, but quarterly growth ended after a 27-quarter streak.

Two structural forces converged: cooling measures from 2023-2024 are still in force (LTV cut from 80% to 75%, longer SSD holding period), and a wave of HDB flats reaching their five-year Minimum Occupation Period - approximately 13,480 in 2026 versus 7,000-8,000 in 2025 - is finally adding resale supply.

Fixed-rate packages start from around 1.40% p.a. and SORA-pegged floating rates from 0.97% p.a. for qualifying loan sizes. Both are well below the 2.6% HDB concessionary rate, making bank loans more attractive than HDB loans for many buyers.

If your current package was signed between 2022 and 2024, you may be paying 3.5-4.0% while today's market offers 1.40-1.80% fixed. On a S$1 million outstanding loan with 25 years remaining, refinancing from 3.8% to 1.6% saves roughly S$1,100 per month, or S$13,000 a year. Most home loans have a 2-year lock-in and require 3 months' notice, so begin quoting options 4-6 months before lock-in expiry.

Yes. MAS Notice 645 requires every Singapore bank to compute Total Debt Servicing Ratio at whichever is higher: the actual contracted rate or 4.00% p.a. With market rates between 1.40% and 1.80%, the 4% floor sets the eligibility ceiling - not your headline rate. Plan your maximum loan around the 4% figure.

413 HDB flats transacted at S$1 million or more in Q1 2026, a fresh quarterly record and an 18% jump from the previous quarter. The bifurcation shows ordinary flats normalising while prime, well-located flats keep setting records.

About the author — Dan Ler has advised on Singapore home loans since 2017 at Nexus Mortgage SG, an independent brokerage comparing 16+ MAS-regulated lenders. Nexus has facilitated 500+ home loans across HDB, private condo, and landed property segments. Banks pay Nexus on disbursement, so there is no cost to the borrower.

Nexus Mortgage SG is an independent Singapore mortgage advisory. This article is general information, not financial advice. Figures are illustrative and reflect market conditions as of April 2026; MAS rules and bank rates can change. For official guidance see MAS Notice 645 (TDSR), HDB Q1 2026 Flash RPI, IRAS ABSD and CPF: Home Ownership.